Merck and Pfizer Gain Momentum Following CDC’s Support for Expanded Pneumococcal Vaccine Usage
A recent meeting of advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention resulted in a nearly unanimous vote to lower the recommended age for routine pneumococcal vaccination from 65 to 50 years. This shift enhances the commercial prospects for various existing and upcoming vaccines on the market.
The committee’s members believe the amendment will lead to improved protection as the risk of infection rises significantly around this age. Earlier guidelines had specified vaccinations for individuals aged 65 and older, those with specific chronic conditions, and children under five. According to the CDC, the highest infection risks are among older adults and young children.
The updated guidelines may foster a profitable environment for vaccines, historically led by Pfizer’s Prevnar line, but which now features additional and promising alternatives aimed at offering wider protection.
For example, Merck received regulatory approval in June for its vaccine, Capvaxive, which defends against 21 strains of the bacteria causing pneumococcal disease, including eight strains not included in other vaccines. Merck has indicated that these eight strains account for over a quarter of invasive pneumococcal disease cases in adults aged 50 and above.
Beneath Merck’s offerings is Vaxcyte, which is working on a vaccine intended to target 31 strains. The company reported positive outcomes in an early clinical trial in September and anticipates having Phase 3 data available by 2026. GSK is also in the race with a vaccine candidate acquired through its 2022 purchase of the startup Affinivax.
The panel based its decision on the desire to enhance vaccine uptake and lower disease incidence in vulnerable populations, noted Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari in a communication to investors. However, Jefferies colleague Roger Song deemed the recommendation a “surprise,” given its potential to increase costs and necessitate additional vaccinations for older adults.
This adjustment has prompted analysts to modify their sales forecasts for pneumococcal vaccines. Tewari has raised peak annual sales projections for Capvaxive from .5 billion to .8 billion, while Prevnar 20 is now expected to achieve up to .2 billion annually, revised from a previous estimate of .8 billion.
According to Leerink Partners’ analyst Daina Graybosch, Merck is likely to capture the majority of the adult vaccine market shortly after this recommendation, which could translate into an additional 0 million in U.S. revenue by the 2026 fiscal year. She warned, however, that Merck’s lead may be temporary, as Vaxcyte’s vaccine, if approved, could present strong competition by 2028.